Public Policy Polling (10/8-10, likely voters, 9/20-21 in parens):
Mark Udall (D): 49 (48)
Bob Schafer (R): 39 (40)
Undecided: 12 (12)
(MoE: ±2.7%)
Udall has run, from my vantage point, a competent but not exactly an amazing campaign. In a year like this, and in a rapidly bluing state like Colorado, that appears to be enough. Just check out the Presidential numbers: Obama is smacking McCain by 52-42.
Udall leads by 54-35 among urban voters, 50-40 among suburban voters, and edges Schaffer by 45-40 among small town voters. Schaffer only holds a bare 45-43 advantage in the rural vote. Even in the demographic breakdowns, Udall has decisive advantages among Hispanic and African-American voters, and wins white voters by 47-43. There’s just not much that Schaffer has going for him in this poll.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.
Seriously, it was only four years ago that states like Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia seemed like they were pretty solidly in Team Red.
We spent the whole thinking we may have a wave on our hands, but it didn’t become obvious until like the last month?